:Issued: 2024 Apr 30 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40430 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Apr 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 01 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 02 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 016 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.6-flare, with peak time 01:14 UTC on April 30 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma- delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3652 (alfa) has started to rotate over the west limb. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 12:36 UTC on April 29, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 at 07:53 UTC on April 29 associated with NOAA AR 3654. Further analysis is ongoing. Coronal holes: A long negative polarity coronal hole stretching from high northern latitudes down to the equator continues to pass the central meridian. The high-speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth late on May 1st. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were enhanced until around 17:45 UTC on April 29 when they started to decline to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 374 to 505 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 1 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected become elevated with a possible mild high-speed stream arrival on and May 1st. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (K 1-2) and locally reached unsettled conditions (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 088, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Apr 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 138 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 138 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013 AK WINGST : 009 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 104, BASED ON 31 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 30 0046 0114 0131 S06W50 M1.6 SF 74/3654 VI/1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#