SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2024 May 21 1233 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40521
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 May 2024, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 198 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 196 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: There are six visible ARs on the solar
disk. Flaring activity has been low, only C-class flares were observed in
the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C4.8 flare from  NOAA AR 3683
(beta magnetic field configuration). NOAA AR 3685 has beta-gamma magnetic
field configuration and has evolved in size and complexity. More C-class
flares will occur and M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.


Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last
24 hours. After further analysis, the CME from 20 May is not expected to
affect the Earth.


Solar wind: The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 380
km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT. There are low chances
of a glancing blow from the CME on 17 May, otherwise slow wind conditions
can be expected for the next 24 hours.


Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours
(Kp and K_BEL up to 2). If we see a glancing blow from the 17 May CME (low
chances), disturbed conditions may occur, otherwise quiet conditions can be
expected for the next 24 hours.


Proton flux levels: The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in
the past 24 hours, it is expected to remain so.


Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16
was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to
remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence
was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 166, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 179
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 200
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 144, BASED ON 33 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.